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Coronavirus


Forums Forums General Discussion Coronavirus

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 876 total)
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  • #322997
    @timb
    Participant

    I am surprised that no one has brought up this topic, heretofore.

    I think this virus has been underestimated.  I think that it has covert capacities.  Perhaps that is due to a longer than recognized incubation and viable transmission time frame than has been previously assumed.  I am sure that it is in part, because of false negatives of testing of persons who have also not shown strong signs of infection.  It may be that we do not have tests that can identify everyone that is an asymptomatic carrier.

    I think that the virus for Covid-19 is out, now, in a lot of places that we just don’t yet recognize, how extensively.

    Of course, attempts to slow it’s spread must be vigorously done, even if it’s result is just to slow the spread.   A vaccine may be developed, some hope, by summer.  But who knows?

    We do know that T rump has cut funding to the Center for Disease Control, each year of his tenure.  And T rump has assured us, with his genius level knowledge that the Coronvirus will peter out with the advent of warmer weather (like April probably).   (Even if that made sense, does he think that warmer weather comes to the Northern and Southern hemispheres at the same time?)

    The powers that be saved us from a potentially even more deadly disease outbreak (ebola).  I am not sure that with T rump in the mix, that things will go as well with this outbreak.

     

    #322999
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    @TimB The facts are you are more likely to catch the flu than COVID-19, even if you have been vaccinated against the flu, because influenza A was not in this vaccine this year. Secondly, the best guess for a COVID-19 vaccine is 18 month, not this summer. Thirdly, the dotard never knows what he’s talking about so do NOT listen to what the dotard says. Fourth: Just like the flu, handwashing helps a great deal, though there is no confirmation as to how long the virus lasts on surfaces. Not only handwashing but not to touch your face and cough or sneeze into your elbow joint.

    Here are some sources for you to get a better handles on this:

    JAMA has some free articles on the subject, but many are written for a person who understands scientific studies: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama

    Here is the one for one of your concerns- the asymptomatic COVID-19 carrier- https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028

    AMA source, also a free article: https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/covid-19-6-key-points-physicians-should-share-patients

    Hope that helps with some of your concerns. If not, you can go to the CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html for even more info, but it probably has more of the same info. The only other thing I can suggest, beside handwashing, is to watch the news concerning the spread in your area, which in most cases are only a few isolated cases who are quarantined already. Do I trust the current U.S. government to do their job? Not really, but handwashing does help with many germs.

    #323097
    @timb
    Participant

    The link for “my concern” basically said (at the end of the discussion session) that an asymptomatic carrier passed on the virus and that if this is replicated, it will mean that preventing infection will be “challenging”.  And they said the method by which asymptomatic carriers acquire and pass on the virus, requires further study.

    I am saying, we do not have a pandemic… yet.  But we well might.  The market dropped like feather in a vacuum (iow, like a rock) today, supposedly due to world concerns re: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).  What I actually heard re: a vaccine by this summer, was an expedited process that could possibly lead to human testing of a vaccine as early as this summer.

    Despite T rump gutting a pandemic task force in 2018, I am hopeful that enough extraordinary people are still in place (and protecting us to the greatest degree possible) in the CDC and other relative institutions, here and in other nations of the world as well.

     

     

    #323100
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    All I can say is, handwashing and avoid touching your face. Wash your hands before (especially if you handle money) and after urinating. Why before? You are touching an orifice and if you did touch something with the virus it’s on your hands. Afterwards is obvious. Wash your hands before you eat and after arriving home from social events. My grandparents who lived through the Spanish flu and raised daughters through the Polio scare were big on washing hands after social events. As far as I know they didn’t get the Spanish flu and of course no one got polio. I truly believe that handwashing is a big help in avoiding such illnesses and health officials agree.

    I read 18 month on a vaccine, so I wouldn’t expect it before then and that in itself would be a record if they did get a vaccine even that soon. In the past, it would takes years. The first flu vaccine wasn’t offered in mass until the mid-70s. I also don’t think they expedite such a vaccine much earlier without making the human populations the guinea pigs and if they do that, that could be a violation of some human rights law and if it isn’t and it is successful, then we now have Star Trek time for vaccines. So I seriously doubt it will be earlier than 18 months. Don’t get your hopes up for this summer.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Mriana.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Mriana.
    #323108
    @timb
    Participant

    Well check this out, my friend.

    “Drugmaker Moderna Inc. has shipped the first batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to U.S. government researchers, who will launch the first human tests of whether the experimental shot could help suppress the epidemic originating in China.

    Moderna on Monday sent vaccine vials from its Norwood, Mass., manufacturing plant to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Md., the company said. The institute expects by the end of April to start a clinical trial of about 20 to 25 healthy volunteers, testing whether two doses of the shot are safe and induce an immune response likely to protect against infection, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said in an interview. Initial results could become available in July or August.

    Moderna’s turnaround time in producing the first batch of the vaccine—co-designed with NIAID, after learning the new virus’s genetic sequence in January—is a stunningly fast response to an emerging outbreak…”

     

     

     

    #323109
    @timb
    Participant
    #323145
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    MSN isn’t JAMA or NEJM or BJM or alike reliable source. IMHO, medical sources are better than news sources.

    If CNN isn’t posting misinformation in order to get people’s hopes up, why aren’t other news sources picking up on this- ie Wash Po, which I get delivered to my email box every morning along with NYT, Guardian, ABC (Aussie news source), Newsweek, BBC, NEJM, JAMA, and a couple other sources. Here’s Wash Po this morning with no mention of a vaccine this summer:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/07/biggest-questions-about-new-coronavirus-what-we-know-so-far/?outputType=amp

    NEJM, what should be a reliable source, this morning with no mention of vaccine this summer:

    https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?query=pfw&jwd=000013567470&jspc=

    I’m not convinced of CNN’s report that a vaccine will happen this summer. I’d be more excited if I read it on NEJM or JAMA or CDC.

    #323157
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    The Wash Po is now saying how bad it may get a vaccine is a year away (below a direct link to when a vaccine will be ready):

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus&variant=show&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu#vaccine

    So, not even CNN knows. I don’t think any news source really knows, that’s why I’d stick to JAMA and NEJM as well as the British Journal of Medicine.

    #323170
    @timb
    Participant

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-faulty-cdc-coronavirus-test-delays-monitoring-of-disease-e2-80-99s-spread/ar-BB10nglx

    In the US, the CDC does not even have the proper tests to determine IF WE ALREADY HAVE AN OUTBREAK.  WE DO NOT KNOW.  We are not testing everyone with flu symptoms to see if it might be the COVID-19 virus.

    The DOTUS says we are fine.   The journals have not yet figured out what’s going on.  But look out the window to see if when it’s raining.  It is.  There has been a deluge in China, and the water’s rising in Italy and elsewhere.  It seems to me that this version of Coronavirus has evolved some stealth abilities, previously not seen.

    If the CDC does not get itself together in spite of the lack of leadership from the White House and the Trumpublican Senate, I expect that there will be more American deaths from this virus that any in recent history.

     

     

     

    #323182
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    @timb Yes, you have every right to be concerned, if not worried and scared. I’m not saying that you shouldn’t be. I’ve not once said that.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/25/f4045570-5758-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html?fbclid=IwAR2-TdDbXO7oP5f96uA24DbY-B_YFWXlP1wtKjnhXUc-Hg-RG5fG8LvU-os

    The dotard is stupid enough to believe that, like the flu, the COVID-19 will die out by summer. I don’t listen to a word he says, because the doesn’t know a damn thing. Stop listening to the dotard. We are not fine as long as he is occupying the Big House and the highest office in the country. The dotard isn’t even funding the CDC so it’s no surprise that the CDC isn’t ready for anything. The fact is, we are in trouble no matter how we slice it, but not just because of the COVID-19. We’re in trouble in more ways than that. I won’t lie to you, I am worried and scared. I handle money all day long and that’s the germiest thing in the world. I want medical gloves to handle the money. My husband has uncontrolled high blood pressure… he could die if he gets it. I have a thyroid problem and chronic sinusitis, no telling what could happen to me. My sons are 28 and 30, so I have no idea what could happen to them. My mother is 75 y.o. with asthma. I get it. Everyone is worried about themselves and their family.

    Handwashing is more important then ever and that’s about the only advice I have under this situation. We’re all helpless in fighting it and all we can do is keep our hands clean, eat right, exercise, etc. and hope for the best.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Mriana.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Mriana.
    #323255
    @timb
    Participant

    The good news is that over 97% of the people who contract COVID-19, will survive.  So let’s say only 10% of US citizens get the disease.  If my off the cuff calculations in my head are correct, then only about 700,000 will die.

    The good news IS NOT that only 60 people in the US have been identified with COVID-19.  Because we HAVE NOT BEEN TESTING FOR IT, adequately.  There are ONLY 12 facilities that can test for it in the entire country.  We have not been doing mass testing.  The virus may have already spread without us even knowing.  80% who get it, experience NO severe symptoms. 

    T rump our anti science dictator, and his increasingly incompetent agencies, will not save us with any extraordinary competence and action as did the Obama Administration in getting a handle on and controlling the deadly Ebola threat.

    T rump was still pretending so far today that this outbreak is under control, no big deal, and being taken care of appropriately in the US.  No doubt, he will have double speak when he addresses the nation on the topic this eve.

    But, yes, Mriana, hopefully someone besides just you and me, read this thread, and know that our best chance of survival in this administration is to wash our hands very frequently.

    #323270
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    Yes, the odds of surviving the COVID-19 are better than surviving the flu. Much better. I don’t know about 80% of people not experiencing symptoms though. They could assume they have a mild case of the flu and try to go on with life.

    Oh don’t mention the dotard. He is doing a propaganda news conference at 6 pm EST today, probably filled with lies and misinformation at worse and at best pure ignorance and stupidity. Either way, I’m not watching or listening to him. It would behoove everyone else not to turn on their TV or radio to him tonight too. He wants a “Coronavirus czar” because Wolf was an embarrassment with his lack of knowledge. Yeah, I see how that will have a big FAIL written all over that too. I know full well the dotard and his cronies won’t save us. They don’t care. They could just hide out in their bunker until the worst is over and let everyone else deal with it. It’s not under control. They have no control over any illness in this country, much less anything. The dotard is more upset about the stock market drop than the COVID-19. Even WHO has said no country is ready for the COVID-19. The U.S. isn’t ready, that is for sure.

    This is the sad part though- we are the only two voices in this thread. That means either 1. people don’t care 2. they don’t want to know (hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil) because they are scared or at best 3. they are following along, reading our links, and learning, but don’t have much to add. I’m hoping for #3.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Mriana.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Mriana.
    #323290
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    OK deep breath… Let’s get some perspective here…

    Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Influenza

    Although a great deal of attention has been given to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, it is most severe in one area of China and appears to have limited clinical ramifications outside of that region. Lost in the discussion about COVID-19 is the fact that the US is experiencing a severe influenza season that has already resulted in more than 16 000 deaths. This JAMA Infographic compares incidence and mortality rates for the 2 diseases.

    Follow link, click title of article, to see graphic. The article is dated February 26, 2020. Not sure if I can post the image. I did!

    NEJM graphic of flu v COVID-19

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Mriana.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Mriana.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Mriana.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Mriana.
    #323294
    @mriana
    Keymaster

    Now here’s an interesting graphic read for you Tim:

    Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

    Among a total of 72 314 case records (Box), 44 672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab samples), 16 186 as suspected cases (22%; diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs), 10 567 as clinically diagnosed cases (15%; this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (1%; diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue).1

    They didn’t or don’t have a means to test either. They are basing this on symptoms basically. Note: Bolding is my doing.

    COVID-19 rapidly spread from a single city to the entire country in just 30 days. The sheer speed of both the geographical expansion and the sudden increase in numbers of cases surprised and quickly overwhelmed health and public health services in China, particularly in Wuhan City and Hubei Province.

    You know when I first heard about this illness and rapid spread, and then it going to other countries, I thought about germ warfare. The thing is, I had to set that thought aside because allegedly an exotic animal for food purposes was said to be the cause. OK so if a bat, or python, or other animal had the virus and then gave to all who ate it and then it turned airborne or something, then here’s my thought- it MIGHT slow down the further one gets from the epicenter. Of course, they basically shut down Wuhan and China as a whole. Thing is, if I remember what I read, Philippines have only one confirmed case, but other Asian countries are increasing in numbers affect, but the numbers are, so far, less. I don’t know if that will hold true, especially if the U.S. doesn’t quarantine those on the ships and alike returning to the U.S., but so far, as far as we know they are. Thus, the numbers in other countries, including the U.S. should theoretically be less than the epicenter Wuhan, China.

    We can hope at least.

    #323296
    @timb
    Participant

    I think their best bet so far is that it came to a human, 1st, by having had some sort of contact with a bat.  And I suppose it passes either by airborne contact or by being transmitted on surfaces.

    I think that the unusual nature of the disease in its progression is that so many can have it and spread it without having bad symptoms, and maybe seem relatively healthy the entire time they have it, while 2% or more die from it.  This could make covert transmission, highly likely.  If someone is passing it on, while not having symptoms, and if tests to detect it are not available, various vectors of transmission could occur (and probably already have).  But whatever mutation it has, has apparently enabled it to be vastly more communicable than other coronaviruses. (Did you know that the common cold is actually, also, one of the coronaviruses?)

    Our DOTUS has put Pence in charge of dealing with it. (Do you feel safer already?) T rump says that the risk to Americans is very low.  I noticed that he said he was “shocked” and “amazed” when he spoke to medical experts to hear that the flu kills from 25,000 to 69,000 people per year.  That would be the regular flu.  I suppose the idiot would be MORE shocked and confused to realize that COVID-19 could kill ten times that.  But he apparently has not realized that.  When it comes to pass, he will probably say that no one could have predicted it.

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